A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
